What We Think Others Think About Climate Change: An 11-Country Study

The majority of people worldwide believe in climate change and its human contribution, yet this social consensus can be systematically misperceived. This study tested the cross-country generalizability of this misperception and investigated whether disclosing the public opinion on climate change, based on real-world data from each country, can promote factors related to climate action. We conducted a preregistered survey experiment with 3,653 participants across 11 diverse countries (Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, and Thailand). We found broad generalizability for systematic misperceptions. People across all countries underestimated the prevalence of pro-climate views, from −15.6% in Japan to −24.7% in Poland. Providing information on public opinion was largely ineffective, except for very small effects on willingness to express one’s opinion on climate change. The results question the utility of social consensus messaging, an emerging intervention approach on social media and as a part of online educational tools.